TIPSTER PREMIUM Edition for Tuesday July 23, 2013
TIPSTER PREMIUM Edition for Tuesday July 23, 2013
Included in this expanded special edition:
1. Monday recap
2. MLB analysis and plays for Tuesday
3. NFL futures and predictions
MONDAY’S RECAP Hello fellow tipsters and welcome to the Tuesday July 23rd edition of the Premium Edge. Yesterday was a great day to be a loyal tipster follower and after demonstrating our expertise, one has to wonder why you would go anywhere else for sports advice? We achieved perfection yesterday which included 6-0 in straight up picks (5-0 when including a 2-way parlay). Days like Monday are exactly why we love this so much! We hope you are enjoying your FREE Tipster Premium this week and we truly hope to earn your trust as the most reliable sports source.
Today is the final day of this PREMIUM promotion. We have decided to offer an additional promotion to our loyal mailing list and twitter followers. If you sign up for any of our pay services by Wednesday 11:59 PM, we will offer you the rest of this week (thru Sunday) FREE and a 50% discount when you renew your pay service. What does this mean? You could sign-up for our 1-day service and receive 5 days FREE! Sign up here: http://www.sportsbooktipster.com/sports-picks--tips.html
For those who don't wish to continue earning money, you can still follow us on Twitter and receive our pick of the day through our tweets. We will also e-mail our pick of the day to our mail list subscribers.
YESTERDAY'S PICK OF THE DAY
Yesterday our “Pick of the Day” was SEA -110 to beat LAA. Our analysis for this game showed that SEA SP Aaron Harang would continue his solid pitching at home. In particular, this was a match-up that Seattle had been waiting for after being swept in brutal fashion earlier this season (3 walk-off losses). In winning this game, the Mariners have won 7 in a row and are currently the hottest team in MLB. The value in this game was the -110 line for Seattle playing against a team that they swept last year when they visited Seattle. Our analysis combined with that value line is why this was the “Pick of the Day”.
“Pick of the Day” Result: WIN (SEA 2 – CLE 1) -110
YESTERDAY'S BONUS
Yesterday’s bonus play was SD-MIL under 9. Our research and analysis pegged this game at around 8 runs. Guess what, the game scored exactly 8 runs. SD defeated MIL 5-3 in a game that went pretty much as we expected. With the information we had, we were not sure as to why the books were sticking a 9 total on this game. This is a perfect example of how you can use the “Tipster Edge” to your advantage.
Our take: “All of our analysis has this game at around 8 runs. On the season SD averages 3.96 runs per game while MIL averages 3.90 runs per game. Combine that with the starting pitchers (Cashner / 3.81 ERA, Gorzelanny / 1.88 ERA) and one has to wonder if the books are counting on Gorzelanny to blow up. This will only be his 4th start of the season and he has only allowed 1 earned run in his previous 3 starts. Facing the anemic SD lineup, Gorzelanny can still have a bad game and this under can still cover.”
“Bonus Pick” Result: WIN (SD-MIL under 9) -115
YESTERDAY'S PREMIUM BONUS
“Double Play” 2-Way Parlay
Only our PREMIUM players got to take advantage of this +200 PURE PROFIT tip. We mentioned yesterday that professional sports cappers rarely provide their members with legitimate parlay opportunities. We hit a 3-teamer on Sunday (as explained in yesterday’s report) and we hit a 2-way parlay yesterday. We went from no parlay opportunities in July to 2 in a row. Normally parlays are seen as “sucker bets”, however, when played correctly parlays can be a dangerous tool for the savvy sports bettor. When the correct information is placed into capable hands, parlays can be the sportsbook’s worst nightmare! We aren’t afraid to play a parlay when we are certain that we have an advantage. Both Sunday and Monday are perfect (winning) examples of this.
Our take: “The Yankees lost in difficult fashion late last night in Boston. They immediately boarded a plane and flew to Texas where they will face the Rangers and Yu Darvish. This game provides real-life circumstantial probabilities for winning a 2-team parlay or as we like to call them our “Double Play”. With TEX at a whopping -180 straight up, we like to combine this with what we see as a high line. With both teams facing great starting pitchers (Nova and Darvish), the line of 8.5 seems a run too high. Given the fact that the Yankees traveled all night following a late night, extra-inning, walk-off loss, look for their aging lineup to be less than motivated. Nova will do his best to keep Texas at bay but won’t get much run support. This gives us an excellent chance to go +200.”
“Double Play” Result: WIN (TEX 3 – NYY 0, and TEX-NYY under 8.5) +200
Other Premium Picks for yesterday
ATL -130 over NYM (WIN)
TB -120 over BOS (WIN)
PICKS FOR TODAY / MLB July 23rd
Today’s picks are all about value and profit. Three of our five picks today are +105 or higher. We are taking advantage of several great opportunities to profit. Our analysis says that the books are dead wrong! We hope you can take advantage of this as well.
Pick of the Day: CHW +105 over DET
Detroit comes into this game knowing that Miguel Cabrera is going to be sidelined with a day-to-day hip injury. That is a huge bonus for the White Sox who face Rick Porcello on the mound. In Porcello’s last 4 starts he has an ERA of 4.25 and has given up nearly 1 run every 2 innings. Hector Santiago takes the hill for the Sox who has been pitching very well in his last 7 starts and a season ERA of 3.30. What tips this game in favor of the White Sox is the combination of two things: Cabrera’s injury and the fact that without Cabrera, the Tigers are mediocre against left-handed pitching. With the Sox being the underdog, this is almost a no-brainer!
Pick of the Day: CHW +105 over DET
Bonus: MIA-COL under 9 (-115)
Today’s bonus play comes to you courtesy of the Marlins and Rockies. For some ungodly reason the books had this match-up at 11 total yesterday. Today’s line total of 9 is more reasonable but expect this one to go under again. The reason this will go under is chalked up to the starting pitching. Chacin takes the mound for the Rockies against a team that is one of the worst hitting in all of baseball, especially on the road. Opposing him is the highly underrated Jose Fernandez and his 1.99 ERA in his last 7 starts. Once again our followers can take advantage of an inflated line.
Bonus: MIA-COL under 9 (-115)
PREMIUM PLAYS FOR TUESDAY JULY 23, 2013
Tipster Edge: Special analysis, picks, tips, and expanded information on more valuable plays for our PREMIUM players.
CLE –SEA over 8.5 (-105): This game has runs written all over it. McAllister takes the mound for the Tribe who has not pitched since early June and will be on a strict pitch count. This means that the Indians will reach into their bullpen early and often. For the Mariners, Ramirez, who is an efficient yet erratic pitcher. Ramirez will also be on a pitch count which will lead to the Mariners bull pen as well. This game has all the makings of a high scoring exciting affair. The pick: OVER 8.5 (-105)
CHC-ARI under 8 (+105): Both teams enter this match-up with pitchers who are absolutely rolling. Both Patrick Corbin and Travis Wood have ERA’s in the high 2.00’s and show no signs of letting up. When the Tipster combines this with the fact that both teams enter this game struggling at the plate, the +105 for scoring under 8 runs is a solid premium play. The pick: UNDER 8 (+105)
TEX-NYY under 9.5 (+105): A little known tip about NYY pitcher Phil Hughes: he pitches better on the road! In running all of the statistical situations available for this game, the Tipster cannot see this game hitting 10 runs. While Ogando has not started since June, his return to the rotation is a boost to an ailing team. The Yankees are in a funk right now and their aging lineup will continue to struggle at the plate. While this game may hit 8 runs, 10 runs seems like a stretch given the fact that the Yankees border on abysmal against RHP. Getting +105 for this pick feels like we are stealing money! The pick: UNDER 9.5 (+105)
NFL FUTURES AND PREDICTIONS
Today we release our much anticipated NFL futures and predictions. We have received numerous requests over the past week for tips on how we felt the NFL season would play out. Each time we tell our followers to simply wait for today! To calculate these projections we take into account certain statistics from last season combined with injuries, draft picks, free agent signings, and projections on the impact of those new players. While we tended to agree with most of the Vegas futures, there are a few surprises in store this season!
AFC EAST
1. New England / 11-5
2. Miami / 9-7
3. Buffalo / 6-10
4. New York / 4-12
Analysis: The Patriots were hurt by their offensive turnover and we predict a return to the pounding run game that propelled the Patriots in the early 2000’s. What will help the Patriots stay atop the east is actually their defensive improvement. Miami is a trendy pick, but they are not quite ready to take over the division reigns but will be a heavy contender for a wild card. Buffalo will need to rely on their running game to win this season and they certainly have the weapons to do that but the QB position will continue to hold them back. Finally, the Jets are an absolute mess and our 4-12 projection will more than likely see them clean house.
AFC NORTH
1. Cincinnati / 12-4
2. Pittsburgh / 8-8
3. Cleveland / 7-9
4. Baltimore / 6-10
Analysis: This division is probably one of the most difficult to predict this season. We clearly see the Bengals being a huge beneficiary of the Ravens drop-off. In fact, Ravens fans I am sorry to tell you, but you have to expect your team to drop off dramatically this season. Pittsburgh and Cleveland will be in the middle and don’t be shocked to see the Browns (yes the Browns) fighting for a wild card spot at season’s end.
AFC SOUTH
1. Houston / 11-5
2. Indianapolis / 9-7
3. Tennessee / 7-9
4. Jacksonville/ 3-13
Analysis: The AFC will once again be the Texans to lose. We don’t think they did enough to fix their secondary to be a dominate team, but their offensive firepower and other defensive parts will be enough to see them comfortably win this division. The Colts will drop off from last season. The smoke and mirrors will be gone and the Colts will not hit double digit wins. However, they will still be in the mix for a wild card spot. Tennessee will take a step forward and be much more competitive than others may give them credit for. Jacksonville will have a very difficult season.
AFC WEST
1. Denver / 13-3
2. Kansas City / 8-8
3. San Diego / 6-10
4. Oakland / 5-11
Analysis: Is there any question who the favorite in the AFC is going into the season? The Denver Broncos will run away with the AFC West and could even be in a position where they can sit their starters by week 14. Kansas City will have a huge improvement this season and much like Cleveland and Miami, they will challenge for a wild card. San Diego will struggle to find its new identity under the new coaching staff, but look for them to improve as the year progresses. Oakland won’t be as bad their record indicates but don’t expect any revelations from them this season.
NFC EAST
1. New York / 10-6
2. Washington / 9-7
3. Dallas / 6-10
4. Philadelphia / 5-11
Analysis: The Giants will once again reign over the east but mostly because this will be a down year for the division and someone has to win. The Giants are simply just a better team than the other 3 going into the season. There are too many question marks about the Redskins and RG3. Dallas seems like they are imploding before the season even starts and Chip Kelly’s offensive antics won’t translate well in the NFL.
NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay / 12-4
2. Chicago / 10-6
3. Detroit / 9-7
4. Vikings / 5-11
Analysis: Sorry Vikings fans, the losses on both sides of the ball and a much tougher schedule will bring the Vikings back down to earth. The Packers will continue their dominance of the division for another year, but the Bears and Lions will be right on their heels. Trestman’s offensive system fits the Bears much more than Lovie Smith and Mike Martz. With their stellar defense, all they needed was a semi-competent play caller.
NFC SOUTH
1. Atlanta / 11-5
2. New Orleans / 9-7
3. Tampa Bay / 8-8
4. Carolina / 6-10
Analysis: This division may not be as close as the odds makers want you to believe. Yes, the Saints have Peyton back and yes they still have Drew Brees but their lack of defensive improvement and age on the offensive side of the ball will start to show this season. Tampa may sneak into the wild card discussion. Cam Newton will have a repeat of last season with no real certainty on the future of the Panthers.
NFC WEST
1. Seattle / 13-3
2. San Francisco / 11-5
3. St. Louis / 9-7
4. Arizona / 6-10
Analysis: This may end up being the best division in all of football when the season is over. Seattle will end up winning the west and are a good pick for the Super Bowl. They didn’t lose anyone of importance and their additions of Harvin and Avril among others make for a championship caliber team. San Francisco will be about as good this season as they were last year, however, the one difference is the improvement of the entire division. They will not be able to beat up on the west as they did the previous 2 seasons. St. Louis will be in the wild card hunt, make no mistake about it. Jeff Fisher is turning things around and a favorable schedule may see them finish at .500 or better. Surprisingly our projections show that Arizona will also be competitive, mostly because of the crossover in schedule with the AFC South.
TIPSTER SUPER BOWL MATCHUP: Denver vs Seattle
Super Bowl Sleepers: Cincinnati and Chicago
